Trash day is a who’s who competition of e-commerce detritus. Not only do we all get to see which neighbor is doing her part to pad Amazon’s bottom line, but also who drinks the most boxed wine, overfeeds his dog, and is too lazy to grocery shop and do the grunt work to prep a whole meal.
While not the most sanitary way to get to know your neighbors, a trash day biopsy is one way to assess the competitive market of delivery meal kits. Another would be to field a representative survey to 1,000 Americans and develop a statistical model that identifies the brands that have the most growth potential. Only because it would be difficult to track every single trash day across the country, we chose the latter.
Since delivery meal kits are a complex product with a variety of features that can elevate or sink a brand (what’s worse than a box full of leaking agave nectar?), we analyzed the brand attributes (equities) that are most associated with increased consideration and purchase rates.
Americans and portion sizes have always had a tenuous relationship, and as surely as you can get a 30 oz Coca-Cola from McDonald’s for a dollar, portion size plays a pivotal role between the consideration and preference phases. Meal kits that are perceived as having large portion sizes see an increase of 10% in purchasing — but it has a 5% negative effect at the consideration phase. It’s as if Americans know they shouldn’t lust after hefty serving portions, but once they do — they are sold.
Although a flexible subscription cadence has an increase in consideration, it has no effect on actual purchasing. It’s common lore that once those boxes of DIY DTC grocery goodness start arriving, nobody would dare hit pause. It’s just too damn hard to pass up not having to measure 1 ½ teaspoons of sour cream.