Let’s be honest. Indictments and anti-vax Kennedys aside, we’re likely hurtling toward a Biden-Trump rematch in 2024.
With that matchup in mind, we wanted to pinpoint the political sermons that will appeal most to their respective 2024 choirs: Which aspects of a pro-Biden ad do Democrats find most convincing, and which pro-Trump ad attributes are more convincing to Republicans?
To find the best way to craft presidential election ads for a partisan audience, we enlisted the analysis we love to preach about most: a conjoint. But this ain’t your grandparents’ message-testing analysis. By using the conjoint method to break a message into its component parts, we can see which parts of the messages help (or hurt) the most. That’s right, we’re making message-testing great again.
The most important message attribute (contributing to 33% share of convincingness) for both Democrats and Republicans is the policy discussed in the ad. The tone of the ad played the smallest role for members of both parties. In other words, a Biden ad mentioning climate change would still be effective with Democrats regardless if the tone is optimistic, apocalyptic, or narcoleptic. (OK we didn’t test that last one).
Plots are cool and all, but sometimes they aren’t enough. That’s why we also made a simulator where you can build your own pro-Trump or pro-Biden messages and compare how they’d be received:
Click here to try and find the most partisan message possible!
