
Anticipate risks and prepare your narrative for the real world






Prepare for how audiences will respond, publicly and privately
Even the best-crafted messages carry risks when introduced into public debate. Some narratives may activate unintended resistance, backfire with hesitant audiences, or mobilize disengaged opponents. We help you see around these corners by identifying latent audience reactions and mapping where narrative strategies may generate support, indifference, or backlash.
The Gradient difference
- Clarify risk exposure
We work with you to identify which beliefs, behaviors, and narratives carry the highest risk of backlash, disengagement, or unintended activation so you can proactively shape your public engagement strategy. - Design targeted research
We design experiments that surface both public and private beliefs, test behavioral intentions, and isolate which messaging components carry the most potential for backlash or support. - Analyze & interpret
Our team of data scientists and PhD researchers uncover not just who supports or opposes your issue, but where hidden pockets of risk exist. We reveal the underlying drivers of resistance, hesitation, or silent agreement across audience segments. - Activate insights
You walk away with a clear, actionable framework that helps you sharpen your narrative, prepare for opposition, and lean into messaging that maximizes support while minimizing risk.

Survey methodologies that drive results
We use an experimental method to reveal private moral beliefs that may not surface in traditional polling.
This powerful technique leverages statistical modeling to infer where people feel pressure to withhold their private thoughts. This technique allows your organization to:
- Surfaces hidden value tensions that standard surveys often miss.
- Distinguish between socially acceptable answers and true personal beliefs.
- Identify where private beliefs diverge from public discourse, allowing for more nuanced narrative strategies.
We use privacy-protecting survey designs to measure behaviors people may hesitate to disclose, such as how they might vote, take action, or engage with advocacy efforts. By shielding individual responses, we can estimate true behavioral intent even on highly sensitive or politicized issues. Private opinion for behaviors:
- Reveals gaps between public statements and private behavioral intentions.
- Anticipates potential mobilization, backlash, or silent support under real-world conditions.
- Helps forecast campaign or ballot initiative risks tied to turnout, persuasion, or grassroots activity.
We use conjoint experiments to test how people privately weigh different message elements (such as values, frames, messengers, or emotional appeals) when forced to make tradeoffs. By presenting respondents with varied combinations and observing their choices, we isolate which components truly drive persuasion, even when people might hesitate to state their preferences directly. This component-based method of testing message preference:
- Breaks messaging into components to reveal which combinations resonate most strongly.
- Captures private preferences that may be masked by public pressure or social desirability.
- Identifies messaging approaches that maximize persuasion while minimizing opposition activation risk.
Success stories at a glance



